from:
http://www.cnn.com/2002/US/12/18/sproje ... index.html
U.S. military officials also gave these details from the Pentagon's latest assessment
of Iraq:
• Total Iraqi ground forces now number about 375,000, about one-third of the
pre-Gulf War levels. There are now 23 divisions, compared to 70 divisions before
Operation Desert Storm. Of those 23 divisions, six are Republican Guard divisions,
with 80,000 to 90,000 troops.
• There are three Republican Guard armored divisions around Baghdad and two
infantry divisions in northern Iraq, arrayed against the Kurds. There is a single
Republican Guard infantry division southeast of Baghdad, arrayed for protection of
the city. Each of these divisions has about 10,000 troops. There are also two special
operations force brigades, one west of Baghdad and one near the city. Each has
about 3,000 troops trained as elite infantry. Troops in the west are positioned
against a possible U.S. or Israeli military action, according to other sources.
Currently there are several hundred Iraqi troops on an operational deployment west
of Baghdad.
• Morale problems plague the military, including the Republican Guard, and there is
evidence of coup attempts from that sector.
• Iraqi ground force training is described as "robust," but there are shortages of
equipment and ammunition, and some training is not considered realistic. The Iraqi
military, across the board, suffers from lack of mobility, despite the illegal diversion
to the military of trucks and vehicles bought in recent years. They have smuggled in
some night vision equipment, but the officials could offer no details.
• Of the 17 regular army divisions, six are heavy divisions that lack key
reconnaissance and air defense equipment. Eleven are infantry divisions. All of
these units have 50 percent to 70 percent of the troops and equipment they need.
• The Iraqi air force has 300 combat fighters, compared to 750 before the war. Some
109 additional fighters remain in Iran, where they were flown during the war. The 60
fighters in the force -- F-1 Mirages, MiG 25s and MiG 29s -- are considered fairly
capable. Just 60 percent to 80 percent of the force is considered "flyable," but less
than that is considered "fully missionable capable." Pilots each get 20 to 50 hours
training annually, about the same a U.S. pilot gets each month. There is evidence
that Iraqi air force pilots are reluctant to engage coalition aircraft. Many pilots come
from the Dulaym tribe, which has long had elements hostile to the regime.
• Iraq has a small, new unmanned aerial vehicle specifically built for
reconnaissance that may also be capable of carrying weapons of mass destruction
and reaching Israel. It was built as a drone and is not a converted manned aircraft.
No other details were offered.
• In the air defense sector, troops are also demoralized. Most of Iraq's air defense
missiles and launchers remain outside the no-fly zones within central Iraq, so they
have been largely protected during routine coalition operations. Because of that, and
the Iraqi ability to repair bombed sites, the overall countrywide capability remains
largely unchanged in recent years. There are currently 24 Sa-3 batteries; 10 Sa-6
batteries, and 22 SA-2 batteries in Iraq, mainly around Baghdad and Tikrit
Officials said that in preparing for war Saddam has begun placing his weapons of
mass destruction closer to the troops that would be directed to use them, including
the Republican Guard, missile units and air force units.
Iraq's chemical and biological weapons capabilities remain dangerous, though
intelligence officials said the biological weapons would be more of a threat than
chemical weapons.
Iraq has improved its biological weapons program since 1991 because of improved
technology and an increased supply of dry agents, a more lethal method of delivery
than liquid-based agents.
Officials said Iraq's chemical weapons capability is much less of a threat than it was
in 1991 because of a decreased amount of munitions and the amount of agents
available.
Iraq's nuclear program also remains a worry, though to what extent intelligence
officials said they do not know.
The country lacks the needed fissile material to finish a complete nuclear weapon,
though it could have a nuclear weapon within a year if the material is made
immediately available.
If Iraqi scientists are able to covertly build hidden facilities to create the needed
material, officials said, Iraq could have a nuclear weapon in five to seven years.
The discrepancy in the time frame, intelligence officials said, is based on uncertainty
as to when Iraq may have started constructing such facilities after the U.N. weapons
inspectors pulled out of Iraq in 1998.
Iraq’s Military Capabilities
Iraq’s Military Capabilities -
12-19-2002, 01:31 AM
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